Monday, October 8, 2012

Preparing for States



Determining a deck for States each year is a difficult challenge.  Few people really know what decks are truly viable and have any testing with or against those decks.  Card availability issues can force deck decisions or leave glaring holes in a deck’s game plan. 

In previous years, this gave a huge advantage to individuals who could correctly identify the best cards and strategies in the format and brew a deck to properly utilize them.  States would occur before any major tournament had occurred, so net-decking was impossible and any online information came mostly from theorizing and not actual testing. 

The Star City Games circuit has changed that slightly.  While SCG has opted not to run major tournaments on prerelease weekends, the release weekends have been considered available.  For the last two years, there has been one large scale tournament before states to help define the metagame.

While this is somewhat of a disappointment, as 50 different tournaments are now shaped by the results of one, it would be negligent to ignore the information it provided. 

An important consideration would be the Wolf Run Ramp deck that made its first appearance at the SCG event(s ?) preceding states.  The frame was very similar to the Valakut decks of the season before that, but the new decks were no longer prepared to fight that variant of deck.  The deck ideally ramped into a turn 4 primeval titan that provided two different threats that were individually capable of winning a game (Primeval Titan with Kessig Wolf Run and then the manland Inkmoth Nexus with Kessig Wolf Run).

This format does not appear to have any deck that attacks the format in ways that are not really expected.  Aggressive decks and control decks are always expected, and the general deck design is both simple to guess and has been endlessly written about.  The reanimator strategy performed well at the Star City tournament last weekend, but it had already been identified as a strategy and has likewise been heavily discussed.

There are really only two combo cards in standard that could possibly be built around.  Burn at the Stake combo decks have been briefly discussed, but they have been pretty firmly in the realm of tier 3 decks or lower.  Epic Experiment is the other one, probably involving multiple copies with Increasing Vengeance and Guttersnipe.  Either one of these would require a lot of testing and tuning with the high probability of being flops.  I wouldn’t be worried about either one of these, as any kind of testing waste some already restricted testing time.

These seem like the initial decks to define the metagame, along with what makes them work and what to watch out for:

UWr Miracles
Zombies
Jund
Reanimator
Bant Control
Selesnya Midrange


UWr Miracles 

2 Snapcaster Mage

4 Pillar of Flame
4 Azorius Charm
4 Think Twice
4 Detention Sphere
4 Jace, Architect of Thought
1 Supreme Verdict
2 Tamiyo, the Moon Sage
4 Terminus
2 Syncopate
3 Entreat the Angels

2 Islands
4 Plains
4 Clifftop Retreat
1 Desolate Lighthouse
4 Glacial Fortress
4 Hallowed Fountain
4 Steam Vents
3 Sulfur Falls

Sideboard:
2 Dissipate
2 Negate
2 Purify the Grave
2 Sundering Growth
3 Geist of Saint Traft
2 Jace, Memory Adept
2 Supreme Verdict


Four Jaces stole the spotlight of the first major Return to Ravnica tournament.  Apart from that, the deck has a lot of things going for it.  A full playset of Pillar of Flame, Detention Sphere, and Terminus is about as good as one can get against the Zombie rush.  Jace and Tamiyo provide the board control and card advantage to make up for the minimal permission.  Lastly, Entreat the Angels is the most potent finisher in standard

One concern about this deck is the lack of win conditions.  The deck can’t dedicate many slots to winning, but a single Slaughter Games (normally not a very good card) reduces the deck to winning with:
-Tamiyo ultimate plus Pillar of Flame
-Jace ultimate getting a threat from the opponent’s deck

Matchup
Zombies feels like an above average matchup.  Snapcaster and Pillar do a decent job of controlling the Gravecrawler wave, Detention Sphere deals with anything bigger, and Jace/Tamiyo lock down whatever is left.  The red zombie deck with burn is a worse matchup, but still winnable.

Jund is probably positive, but not by a large amount.  Thragtust is obviously an issue, but Tamiyo can keep it locked down.  Rakdos’s Return is the big trump for Jund, as it should empty the rest of the miracle player’s hand and likely off a planeswalker in the process.  However, it’s much worse in multiples and the miracle deck has powerful draws.  A Jace should resolve any shortage of options by refilling your hand, and Entreat the Angels is better off the top anyway.  The Miracle deck can both remove and go over the top of an Olivia with angel tokens. 

The mirror match is quite strange game one, as a lot of the cards are sub-par.  Post board, the Dissipates, Negates, Geists, and Jaces come in to give a more proactive game plan.

The plan against Reanimator is a little more suspect.  Angel of Serenity is a good answer to Entreat the Angels, and the deck is chocked full of Thragtusks.  Jace does a good job of neutralizing Lingering Souls, but overall the reanimator deck’s threats match up well against the miracle deck’s answers.


B/R Zombies

4 Diregraf Ghoul
4 Gravecrawler
4 Rakdos Cackler
4 Blood Artist
4 Geralf’s Messenger
4 Falkenrath Aristocrat

3 Pillar of Flame
4 Bump in the Night
4 Searing Spear
3 Brimstone Volley

10 Swamps
4 Blood Crypt
4 Dragonskull Summit
4 Rakdos Guildgate

Sideboard:
3 Underworld Connections
2 Tragic Slip
3 Rakdos, Lord of Riots
3 Dreadbore
1 Pillar of Flame
2 Sever the Bloodline
1 Mountain


This list probably has a better shot against the metagame than the Golgari version.  The green cards encourage more board development, which is how people are fighting the deck.  The Rakdos version is designed to circumvent as much of the hate as possible for zombies while still applying heavy pressure.  Terminus looses a little luster when zombies can untap and do 6 to the dome with burn.  The lack of green does remove the one good, aggressive two drop from zombies, but this deck has more synergy with Blood Artist. 

One key innovation for the Golgari zombie deck was the inclusion of crippling blight.  Originally just a limited card, the Falter effect is just as good as removing it permanently. 

The Underworld Connections provide the additional draw to find more burn, but Tamiyo is quite strong against it.  Rakdos, Lord of Riots is a great way of going big against decks like Selesnya Midrange.  Sever the Bloodline is another removal spell that deals with cards like Trostani, along with being good (if slightly awkward) against the mirror.

Matchups
The miracle matchup should be slightly favorable, as the burn really helps push the last points of damage through board control.  The Golgari version should be slightly unfavorable.  The matchup can never be too unfavorable, as sometimes miracles will draw their cards in the wrong order and have no answers.  The mass of one drops helps the consistency of the aggressive draws and can just steal games from anyone.

The mirror match will likely come down to what colors are being played.  Red feels likely to be the control deck, as the burn can act as removal and red doesn’t have a replacement to match Rancor and Lotleth Troll.  However, each player’s opening hand and subsequent draws should really determine who is agro and who is control.  If Golgari’s mana can support it, it has Thragtusk and possibly Garruk Relentless in the board.  Rakdos has access to a set of Pillar of Flame.  Both can have access to Vampire Nighthawk if they want it.

Reanimator really comes down to what order they draw their spells.  The successful reanimator deck from SCG had Centaur Healer, Lingering Souls, and Thragtusk, which are all quite good against zombies.  Rolling Temblor is also one of the only remaining sweepers in the format, and it does a good job at decimating all the one drops in zombies.  The matchup seems quite bad for zombies, but the reanimator deck can always lose to just drawing the wrong lands.  The manabase is quite scattered.


Jund

3 Borderland Ranger
4 Huntmaster of the Fells
3 Olivia Voldaren
4 Thragtusk

4 Pillar of Flame
4 Farseek
3 Mizzium Mortars
2 Dreadbore
3 Rakdos Keyrune
1 Underworld Connections
2 Sever the Bloodline
2 Rakdos’s Return

4 Forest
2 Mountain
1 Swamp
3 Blood Crypt
1 Dragonskull Summit
2 Evolving Wilds
1 Kessig Wold Run
4 Overgrown Tomb
4 Rootbound Crag
3 Woodland Cemetery

Sideboard:
1 Tormond’s Crypt
2 Deathrite Shaman
1 Vampire Nighthawk
1 Underworld Connections
2 Naturalize
1 Liliana of the Veil
1 Appetite for Brains
2 Blasphemous Act
2 Duress
2 Slaughter Games

Once again, this deck is clearly built to beat zombies.  4 Pillar of Flame is pretty much standard in anything running red now, along with 4 Huntmaster of the Fells and 4 Thragtusk to recoup life.  This deck beats the other midrange decks by relying on Olivia Voldaren, along with superior removal and discard.  Olivia’s gold color and CMC of 4, along with the ability to grow past 4 toughness make it a difficult threat to remove.  This deck also has Sever the Bloodline to deal with resistant threats such as this, along with Dreadbore to kill anything.

Control decks, currently miracles, have answers for any of the threats in this deck.  Rakdos’s Revenge does a lot of work here, killing planeswalkers and emptying hands.  Sever’s ability to kill angel tokens from the graveyard is another strong point.  Overall, the deck will attempt to grind down anyone and then kill them with whatever is left.  The keyrune is quite strong here, providing both color fixing and ramp for Olivia, along with being a difficult to kill threat.

There was a second list that made top 8 with geist and wolfir avenger.  These cards seem rather poor to me, as the geist is likely to eat one a pillar of flame for no value.  The regenerate on avenger is nice, but it doesn’t match up well against any of the finishers in the format except thragtusk.  The sorcery speed of this deck doesn’t play well with 2 mana regeneration costs.

There was another list that focused on the combo of Lotleth Troll and Veilborn Ghoul.  Veilborn Ghoul triggers every time a swamp is played, and it returns to the hand.  This allows every swamp to permanently pump Troll for each copy of Veilborn Ghould.  Both Lilianas work well with Ghoul too, making it a good way to grind out card advantage.  Troll seems much stronger than geist or avenger if one wants to grind games with creatures instead of spells.

Matchups
The matchup against zombies seems positive, considering 6 removal spells that exile and 8 spells that have resilience and incidental lifegain.  Deathrite Shaman and Vampire Nighthawk are both good against zombies too. 

The miracle matchup seems close to even.  Geist can be a problem for this deck if it can’t keep a blocker in the way or overload Mizzium Mortars.  On the other hand, miracles can have a hard time winning if Entreat gets named by Slaughter Games.  This seems like a very similar matchup to Jund against U/W tapout during Shards block, with less bloodbraid blightning shenanigans. 

The versatility of the removal makes the reanimator matchup seem positive.  Both decks will just attempt to grind out the other, with underworld connections being an all star.  The reanimator deck is filled with dig that can give card advantage, while the jund deck is filled with removal and an equal number of threats.  Griselbrand can be a problem if they resolve it with a high enough life total.  It may not protect itself very well without force of will, but it will still bury jund in card advantage.


Reanimator

3 Centaur Healer
4 Thragtusk
4 Angel of Serenity
2 Griselbrand

4 Faithless Looting
4 Mulch
4 Grisly Slavage
2 Dreadbore
1 Golgari Charm
3 Lingering Souls
2 Roling Temblor
4 Unburial Rites

4 Blood Crypt
3 Clifftop Retreat
4 Overgrown Tomb
3 Rootbound Crag
3 Sunpetal Grove
4 Temple Garden
2 Woodland Cemetery

Sideboard:
1 Centaur Healer
1 Elderscale Wurm
2 Rhox Faithmender
2 Oblivion Ring
1 Golgari Charm
1 Ray of Revelation
1 Vraska the Unseen
2 Bonfire of the Damned
3 Duress
1 Sever the Bloodline

This deck does a good job of filling the “combo” niche in the format.  It has 12 legitimate ways to dump cards in the graveyard to cheat a big monster into play fast, along with the Plan B of casting a bunch of Lingering Souls and Thragtusks.  Angel of Serenity provides a threat that immediately impacts the board, like Elesh Norn used to do, along with being able to chain if you find multiple copies.  Griselbrand is less than optimal here, as the draw ability isn’t the best.  It is still a 7/7 flying lifelink creature though, and that counts for something.

I haven’t been able to test this deck yet, but I’m a little scared of the manabase.  It seems quite possible to shave the red and fill out several of the cards to the full four copies.  Rolling Temblor seems quite weak.  The true loss is faithless looting, but Lotleth Troll can make up for that, along with Tracker’s Instinct if the mill is really necessary. 

Matchups
The matchups for this deck are more specific in terms of what removal is present.  If a deck has poor removal spells, it is quite possible to steal games with unburial rites.  Otherwise, it is prepared for a long grind with thragtusk and lingering souls.

Lingering souls is quite poor against Jace, so the other threats will have to really pull their weight.  Angel is quite good there, so it is important to not lose multiples under a detention sphere or terminus.  The massive card advantage of unburial rites should be pushed as hard as possible.


Bant Control

4 Thragtusk
2 Angel of Serenity

4 Farseek
1 Azorius Charm
1 Think Twice
2 Selesnya Charm
4 Detention Sphere
1 Selensya Keyrune
3 Supreme Verdict
3 Jace, Architect of Thought
2 Tamiyo, the Moon Sage
4 Terminus
3 Sphinx’s Revelation
1 Entreat the Angels

2 Forest
3 Island
2 Plains
1 Evolving Wilds
4 Glacial Fortress
2 Hallowed Fountain
4 Hinterland Harbor
4 Sunpetal Grove
3 Temple Garden

Sideboard:
1 Angel of Serenity
2 Centaur Healer
3 Rest in Peace
1 Dissipate
2 Negate
1 Geist of Saint Traft
2 Garruk Relentless
1 Jace, Memory Adept
1 Entreat the Angels
1 Supreme Verdict


This is pretty much the same deck as the UWr miracle deck with different finishers.  Angel is another strong finisher, and the deck gets to minimize the low velocity draw cards (think twice and azorius charm) for higher impact spells.  The numbers seem somewhat rough, but the pair of Jace and Tamiyo is still quite strong, as is Thragtusk.  Sphinx's Revelation obviously much more powerful than think twice, and this deck doesn't need to stretch it's draws to maximize miracle triggers.


Selsnya Midrange

4 Arbor Elf
4 Avacyn’s Pilgrim
4 Call of the Conclave
3 Borderland Ranger
1 Loxodon Smiter
2 Centaur Healer
3 Restoration Angel
2 Trostani, Selensya’s Voice
3 Thragtusk
3 Wolfir Silverheart
1 Sigarda, Host of Herons
2 Armada Wurm

3 Selesnya Charm
2 Garruk Relentless

11 Forest
1 Plains
2 Gavony Township
1 Grove of the Guardian
4 Sunpetal Grove
4 Temple Garden

This was a deck I liked quite a bit as a way to completely smash zombies.  It seems that was everyone else’s plan, and their Terminates are just as bad against this deck.  This deck has a hard time against Olivia as well, unless it grows large enough to get Selesnya Charmed.  It is quite possible to just have the threats match up correctly against other removal though, since Mizzium Mortars and Pillar of Flame are not very good against this deck.  Wolfir Silverheart still deals a ton of damage against sorcery speed removal.


Closing Thoughts

I’m still sad I won’t be able to play in States this year (I was previously booked for the Team Grand Prix in San Jose). 

 If I had the chance to play, I would probably start with the reanimator deck.  I am very interested in trying to fit the Lotleth Troll and Veilborn Ghoul combo into that deck as a better Plan B.  It seems very synergistic with all of the self milling, but there might be a problem with clogging the 2 drops.  Either way, I would want to test it first.

If that didn’t work, my fallback would probably be Jund.  I feel like it has a decent matchup against the miracle deck and can be made much better in the board.  The extreme amount of lifegain the deck has should be enough to make the Zombie matchup positive.  If the mana could support it, I’m interested in Nighthawk in the board for zombies too.

The last fallback would be B/R zombies.  I like the deck a lot, but I feel like Zombies still has a huge target as the primer agro deck of the format.  Too many people will show up with decks designed to beat it to have a reliable shot at top 8.

I would almost definitely stay away from the miracle deck this weekend.  It will be the other deck to beat as the winning deck from the SCG event.  It’s Rakdos zombie matchup still doesn’t feel that good, and the deck can’t really be configured against the mirror without dramatic losses against other decks.  Slaughter Games seems very good against the current list too.

The Bant Control deck seems like a better choice for the controlling route.  Jace and Tamiyo are both still available (I expect the correct number of Jace is 4, not 3).  Angel of Serenity, and to a lesser extent Thragtusk, are more reliable finishers than Entreat the Angel.  The deck is also still fairly anonymous, since it didn’t make the top 8 of the SCG event (it came in 9th).  If threat diversity is a concern, Armada Wurm is available, but Angels are much better in multiples due to chaining them together.

Selesnya Midrange is probably a bad idea right now.  There are too many decks with Terminus to really encourage that deck.  It was mainly a starting platform to beat Zombies anyway, and that is clearly manageable without resorting to mono-creatures.

 Best of luck to everyone playing in States!  I hope the Reanimator deck with Lotleth Troll works out, as I’m super interested in playing with it now.