Friday, September 28, 2012

Return to Ravnica Standard - Calling Shots


This is an experiment for me to try to predict the metagame of the new standard before it comes out. The first two decklists are followed by my reasoning for card selection, as they are the decks I will probably start playing first. There are a couple cards that are strong, but I don’t have the decks they fit in yet, so they are discussed at the end.


G/B Zombies

4 Diregraf Ghoul
4 Dreg Mangler
4 Geralf's Messenger
4 Gravecrawler
4 Lotleth Troll
4 Rakdos Cackler

3 Rancor
2 Abrupt Decay
2 Murder

1 Tragic Slip
1 Ultimate Price
4 Sign in Blood

11 Swamp
4 Cavern of Souls
4 Overgrown Tomb
4 Woodland Cemetery


Explinations:

4 Diregraf Ghoul
4 Gravecrawler
4 Geralf’s Messenger
This is the core of the old zombie deck directly ported into the new standard. They are the best at what they do, and there is no reason to cut any of them.

4 Rakdos Cackler
The loss of Fume Spitter is unfortunate, but this is an adequate replacement. The strength of the zombie deck comes from quickly overwhelming the board, and three 1-drops by turn two is the best way to start.

3 Rancor
This is yet another way to have 6 power in play by the end of turn 2. It is also one of the best weapons against the G/W decks, forcing trades instead of stonewalling all of your creatures. Between Chord of the Conclave, Restoration Angel, Loxodon Smiter, Centaur Healer, and more, the Selesnya guild is filled to the brim with X/3 and X/4 creatures that will cause huge problems for the deck.

4 Lotleth Troll
This is the mythical 2-drop that zombies has been looking for. The discard ability seems relevant mostly for pushing through some large blocker, as the creature would otherwise be better than a +1/+1 counter. It does make blocking difficult when an opponent is at low life, as a couple creature s in your hand can cause a bad block to turn into a win. This makes the regeneration better than it would otherwise be, as it can be necessary to block him instead of the other 1-drop 2/X creatures. The regeneration will also be good against sweepers, but that’s obvious. The trample seems like a bonus that won’t come up very often until the last turn of the game. Then you get a chance to dump your uncast creatures into the yard for a few free gut shots to the face.
*The more I wrote about this creature, the more synergistic the abilities felt. I probably rewrote this 2-3 times as I kept removing negative and marginal comments for good ones. This guy is the real deal.

4 Dreg Mangler
Clearly not as good as Geralf’s Messenger, but it does a good impression. This converts 2 damage to the face into 3 blockable damage. The other change is undying to scavenge 5, which is far worse but at least not a total loss. Even if it doesn’t stack up to Messenger, it does a fair impersonation and that will be huge for the deck. This guy makes sure the deck curves out properly and uses it’s mana as efficiently as possible.

4 Sign in Blood
Zombie’s mana curve has developed well enough that this shouldn’t need to be used as a 2-drop anymore. I’m leaving this as a 4 of initially as a method to rebuild after terminus (no real defense in the deck otherwise) and as a small amount of reach. Since it’s hard to determine the best removal out of all the situational options, it works best to have a bit of everything with the maximum amount of draw to find the right piece.

2 Abrupt Decay
2 Murder
1 Tragic Slip
1 Ultimate Price
The removal in this deck is hard to determine without considering the rest of the format. Abrupt decay doesn’t deal with any of the huge threats people will play to stabilize, so maxing is going to cause dead draws. Murder’s mana cost is terrible with 8 3-drop creatures already in the deck, but it will deal with anything. Enabling morbid before combat will be hard, so tragic slip loses a lot of value. Removal is needed to clear the way to attack, so not working on the first main phase is a huge problem. Ultimate Price could be really good or really bad based on what becomes popular. There is currently a mix of everything to give a chance to draw whatever is necessary in a given situation.


What didn’t make the cut:

Blood Artist
Mortarpod and Fume Spitter are both gone, which makes it much more likely to live. On the flip side, zombies will probably have the smallest creatures, so it really needs to

Knight of Infamy
This is another legitimate 2-drop, but clearly weaker than the troll. If white aggro becomes popular, it could get better. Right now, casting 2 1-drops seems better than this guy.

Cryptborn Horror
Another 3-drop, so it has to compete with messenger and Dreg Mangler. It’s quite good when things are going according to plan, but completely terrible to draw on an empty or stalled board. Not worth filling up the 3-drop spot more.

Red cards

Falkenrath Aristocrat
Great at getting through the air, but lingering souls is still a card. The synergy with blood artist is still there, but that discourages the early beaters that the deck really needs. Instead of casting 2 1-drops, you cast a 0/1 that can’t attack unless you have rancor (and still not that well). This is still a great card, but I don’t think you need the splash for it.

Pillar of Flame
Probably the best reason to play red, it will be a huge trump in the mirror. However, that means adding 4 more shocklands to the deck which will make you weaker. This card will probably discourage X/2 creatures otherwise, as everyone will want them for zombies, so they probably won’t be at their best against the rest of the field.

Other burn
Reach will definitely help the deck, but there aren’t that many spots left in the deck. Some removal can come out, burn is going to be better to finish an opponent than killing creatures. Creature decks are going to need to go bigger than zombies to win, so I don’t like flames of the firebrand much anymore. Brimstone volley is good, but it fights with the other 3-drops and triggering morbid is still hard.


Selesnya Aggro

4 Arbor Elf
4 Avacyn's Pilgrim
4 Call of the Conclave
3 Borderland Ranger
1 Loxodon Smiter
2 Centaur Healer
3 Restoration Angel
3 Trostani, Selesnya's Voice
3 Thragtusk
3 Wolfir Silverheart
1 Sigarda, Host of Herons
2 Armada Wurm

2 Selesnya Charm
2 Garruk Relentless

11 Forest
1 Plains
2 Gavony Township
1 Grove of the Guardian
4 Sunpetal Grove
4 Temple Garden


This will be organized more in clumps, as I know why the types of cards are good. The exact numbers are somewhat up for debate.

4 Arbor Elf
4 Avacyn’s Pilgram
The 1-drops are simply to get big things online faster. This puts Thragtust in play faster against agro and puts games away faster for the control matchups.

3 Borderland Rangers
These fill 2 critical roles in this deck. They provide mana to resolve the game-ending threats and they buy time to get to that point. They also give Restoration Angel a target on curve to blink for value.

4 Call of the Conclave
1 Loxodon Smiter
2 Centaur Healer
These are one of the main reasons I feel this deck can be viable in the new format. Zombies is one of the clear forerunners of the new format, and these cards do a great job of getting in the way. Call of the Conclave tokens will do a great job of blocking Gravecrawler and friends. Loxodon Smiter provides a guy that blocks Geralf’s Messenger and Dreg Mangler and lives to tell the tale. Centaur healer is a bit of a hedge against the new format. Aggressive strategies tend to be the most easily constructed and dominate new meta-games. Healer provides a body and value up-front against aggro decks, while still being reasonable as an offensive threat when necessary. It also gives Restoration Angel another card to blink on curve.
These numbers could be slightly off, but Abrupt Decay is a card I’d like to minimize as much as possible. Eventually, I expect it will be correct to overload on these cards to power through Abrupt Decay. However, it will probably be overplayed initially because it feels like a much better removal spell than everything else. These creatures also dying to Mizzium Mortars is also a consideration.

3 Restoration Angel
This really feels incorrect in this decklist. The raw power is there, but the blinking effect seems lackluster on curve. The value is obviously insane when blinking Thragtusk or Armada Wurm, but that means casting Angel several turns after reaching 4 mana. Another concern is the lack of other instant spells in this deck will make it quite obvious and easy to play around. However, the synergies that do exist for it are insane so I still want to try it. It’ll be one of the first things I look to if I need to find room for something else.

3 Trostani, Selesnya's Voice
This is another card that should profit from the aggressive nature of a new format. The body isn’t that great at attacking, but the other abilities are very good. It might be correct to push tokens a little harder to improve the populate ability, but it should be serviceable between Call of the Conclave, Garruk, Thragtusk, and Armada Wurm. This is also the reason I have 1 Grove of the Guardian instead of another Township. The life gain is where this card really pulls ahead. Resolving this against anything aggressive should do one of two things. It either eats a removal spell that would otherwise kill a bomb, or provide so much value off of the same bomb that most aggressive decks will be extremely far behind. Most of the aggressive decks don’t appear to have much reach, which gives greater value to life gain as a stabilizing tool.


3 Thragtusk
3 Wolfir Silverheart
1 Sigarda, Host of Herons
2 Armada Wurm
These are the game-winning threats. Thragtusk and Silverheart appear to be the best available, so they have the higher numbers. Thragtusk is guaranteed lifegain against the decks where you need it, and a little protection against Terminus, which is a problem otherwise. Wolfir Silverheart provides insane damage, but it is weak to ultimate price. Fortunately, I don’t think that card will initially see as much play as tragic slip and abrupt decay in the first few weeks (until people learn what bombs define the format). Silverheart still guarantees some damage against dreadbore. If jund with good removal is a popular deck, these should change to Sigarda. Sigarda is the ultimate trump against Jund and Zombies, along with whatever other aggressive decks there are. Nothing short of a clone kills it, and it is unlikely anyone will have clone in their board for him. Unfortunately, it falls short against Lingering Souls. Armada Wurm has protection from most of the removal in the format, along with its power being split between two bodies. It also has synergy with Trostani and Resto Angel, so it is worth the couple slots.

2 Garruk Relentless
Both zero abilities are synergistic with the deck. The tokens will give early blockers until your bombs get into play, along with providing Trostani a target to populate. The prey upon ability is the only small removal in the deck. Oblivion ring is being skipped to prevent Abrupt Decay collateral damage, and I don’t really feel that it is necessary. The back side of Garruk is mostly bonus, but it can tutor for the singleton Sigarda if necessary.

2 Selesnya Charm
This card is mostly for the mirror and the control matchup. Against control, it gives another flash creature, and it provides value for Trostani before it gets sideboarded (it’s bad against control, it encourages overextending). More importantly, it kills Wolfir Silverheart in the mirror at instant speed. The giant growth ability is mostly gravy, and probably shouldn’t be used unless it’s killing someone.

Lands
Throstani has a strict mana requirement, so the non-basics are kept to a minimum. The one grove is to try with Trostani, as the ultimate populate target. It could be worse than another township, so it’s on watch.


Extra Notes
-The numbers in this list are clearly attempting to play around abrupt decay. This may not be correct, as it could be easier to overload on threats that die to it and just make them have it.

-Collective blessing might be worth a slot, but I’m not sure. It depends on how well the end threats pull their weight. If zombies doesn’t end up being that popular, one Trostani will probably come out for one.

-Prey upon might be worth considering as removal, but it’s still pretty poor. It depends on what threats Jund adopts. More Selesnya charms are probably just better though.


Jund Midrange

3 Borderland Ranger
4 Huntmaster of the Fells
4 Lotleth Troll
4 Thragtusk

1 Garruk, Primal Hunter
2 Vraska the Unseen
2 Bonfire of the Damned
4 Farseek
3 Mizzium Mortars
4 Pillar of Flame
2 Rakdos's Return
3 Rakdos Keyrune

4 Forest
2 Mountain
1 Swamp
4 Blood Crypt
2 Kessig Wolf Run
4 Overgrown Tomb
4 Rootbound Crag
4 Woodland Cemetery

This decklist is pilfered straight from Patrick Chapin’s article on SCG.


4 Arbor Elf
4 Borderland Ranger
2 Disciple of Bolas
4 Huntmaster of the Fells
2 Olivia Voldaren
2 Thragtusk
4 Wolfir Silverheart

4 Tragic Slip
2 Bonfire of the Damned
4 Farseek
4 Pillar of Flame

9 Forest
1 Mountain
1 Swamp
3 Blood Crypt
3 Overgrown Tomb
3 Rootbound Crag
4 Woodland Cemetery

This decklist is pilfered straight from Brian Kibler’s article on SCG.


Jund has dominated the block metagame since Kibler made the deck for the block Grand Prix. Bonfire was extremely powerful here, and the lack of removal in the format made Silverheart a huge beating. Removal is better in the new format, but nothing is truly on the power level on Doom Blade or Go for the Throat. Having both Rakdos and Golgari in Return to Ravnica make the mana for this shard a cakewalk, so a deck filled with good/value removal spells and creatures will likely be a huge player in the metagame.


U/R Delver of Secrets

The delver decks won’t just die with so many fans of the U/W lists that currently flood standard. Izzet charm causes a huge pull to a U/R build, and pillar of flames is another huge bonus. Something like this:

4 Delver of Secrets
4 Goblin Electromancer
3 Guttersnipe
4 Snapcaster Mage

2 Cyclonic Rift
4 Desperate Ravings
2 Syncopate
3 Bonfire of the Damned
4 Mizzium Mortars
4 Pillar of Flame
3 Talrand's Invocation

6 Island
7 Mountain
2 Desolate Lighthouse
4 Steam Vents
4 Sulfur Falls

This list came straight from one of Gerry T's article on SCG


Control

Some form of control will become become good when the metagame settles a bit. Entreat the Angels, Thragtusk, Angel of Serenity, or Niv Mizzet seem like some of the more powerful finishers available.

Something will need to come up to utilize the new Jace, it just comes down to finding the right shell.

Entreat the Angels
Clearly the strongest finisher if it can be reliably miracled. This requires a fairly dedicated miracle deck, which will make fantastic use of Terminus. Unfortunately, there is no realistic ponder replacement and the deck loses a bit of consistency. If it can’t find an early terminus, it seems very weak to the new zombie decks. Slaughter Games seems like a huge blowout too.

Thragtusk
Not a super powerful finisher, but a legitimate reason to splash green in control. It stabilizes games like almost nothing else in the format. RUG, Bant, and BUG are all legitimate control options.

Angel of Serenity
Very powerful if you can survive to casting 7 mana threats. It encourages multiple copies as they chain together very well. I’m not sure what the decklist that can run this card is, but I imagine it will include detention sphere, terminus, and supreme verdict.

Niv Mizzet
Another huge flier that produces huge card advantage if you untap or cast with open mana. It is resistant to Mizzium Mortars, which is a huge requirement of finishers. It only realistically dies to Murder and Dreadbore (what doesn’t?)


Tokens

Lingering Souls needs a home too. Something token-based should show up, but I don’t have a decklist for it yet


Reanimator

Grisly Salvage is extremely powerful. If reanimating Gisela, Blade of Goldnight, Gristlebrand, Angel of Serentiy, or Angel of Glory’s Rise is worth it, this deck could become popular.





Hope I hit everything. Wish I was playing in states this year, new standard looks great! I’d love to hear some feedback.